Modi-Nitish Magic: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continues to maintain a stronghold in Bihar. According to a recent survey, NDA may win between 33 to 35 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while the opposition ‘Grand Alliance’ could face a major setback and may only secure 5 to 7 seats. The Grand Alliance includes Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
NDA’s vote share in Bihar increases
According to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey, NDA is seeing a 5% increase in its vote share in Bihar. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NDA received a 47% vote share, which could now rise to 52%. On the other hand, the INDIA alliance is showing a slight increase, but it is only growing from 39% to 42%.
Impact on Bihar Assembly elections
The survey results also give significant indications for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. CVoter founder-director Yashwant Deshmukh stated that the math of voting in Bihar is very clear. He mentioned, “If NDA stays united, it will be difficult to defeat them. The voting pattern in Bihar is purely based on arithmetic. Unlike states like Delhi, there is no ‘split voting’ here. If BJP, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), and Chirag Paswan’s LJP remain united, the path will be very difficult for the Grand Alliance.”
Bihar will hold its Assembly elections later this year, and NDA has already made it clear that the elections will be contested under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. According to the survey, if NDA comes back to power, Nitish Kumar will become the Chief Minister for the fifth consecutive term. However, political analysts believe that Nitish Kumar is in a weaker position for the Bihar Assembly elections, and BJP is heading toward a major victory. The survey results indicate that NDA is gaining public support in Bihar, while the Grand Alliance is weakening. However, political dynamics may change before the Assembly elections, but currently, the BJP-JDU alliance appears to have a significant lead.
